Boys Soccer: Playoff Projections, Rankings

Boys Soccer: Playoff Projections, Rankings

Sorry to announce this on a day that is so exciting for everyone, but I do need to let the readers know, while I’ve got your attention, that this is likely the end of my time with the blog.

It has become too hard with my new schedule, with married life and new coaching responsibilities. I am not closing the door completely, in case I move out of San Francisco and into the East Bay or North Bay, but there is a good chance that I will walk away. It’s become too hard to stay in tune and to update the blog.

I can’t even begin to tell you guys how much I have loved doing this, and how grateful I am for the friends and relationships I have created. I truly love this blog, and I wish it still fit into my life.

With that said, for probably the last time, here are my playoff projections.

These are my projections, based on what I think the committee will do. Please remember that.

Division I

1. De La Salle
2. San Ramon Valley
3. Amador Valley
4. Monte Vista
5. Pittsburg
6. Clayton Valley
7. Logan
8. Berkeley
9. California
10. Granada
11. Heritage
12. Freedom
13. Dougherty Valley
14. Dublin
15. Deer Valley
16. Castro Valley

I think 1-4 is obvious. To me at least. I think Pitt, with the win over Clayton, goes to No. 5. I think Clayton gets the jump on Logan with a head-to-head win and the same for Logan over Berkeley.

I think the EBAL will get deference and Cal and Granada will go over Heritage. Even though Granada had one more point in EBAL play, I think Cal’s head-to-head win over Granada will be the difference.

Division II

1. Redwood
2. Montgomery
3. Richmond
4. Newark Memorial
5. Ygnacio Valley
6. Las Lomas
7. Livermore
8. Concord
9. Santa Rosa
10. Maria Carrillo
11. Mt. Eden
12. Hayward
13. Alameda

The committee loves head-to-head so Redwood will get seeded over Montgomery, despite the forfeit losses that gives Monty a better record. I think 3-4 is pretty clear, but 5-7 was tough to decide. I also think 8-10 was a bit of a crapshoot.

Division III

1. Miramonte
2. Bishop O’Dowd
3. Acalanes
4. San Lorenzo
5. Rancho Cotate
6. Sonoma Valley
7. Piner
8. Kennedy-Fremont
9. Pinole Valley
10. Drake
11. Terra Linda
12. De Anza
13. Analy
14. San Rafael
15. Albany

Miramonte’s head-to-head win with BOD gets them the top seed. Choosing 4-8 was tough.

Division IV

1. Marin Academy
2. St. Mary’s
3. Branson
4. University
5. Marin Catholic
6. Berean Christian
7. Kennedy-Richmond
8. Cardinal-Newman
9. Lick-Wilmerding
10. Moreau Catholic
11. Piedmont
12. Healdsburg
13. Salesian

I’m leaving myself exposed by having Marin Catholic at No. 5, but again, the committee loves head-to-head. MC has a big loss to University, recently, and a loss to Branson, which beat University.


The rankings certainly won’t matter as much now that playoff seedings are being released.

1. De La Salle (13-2-7)
2. Montgomery (18-2-1)
3. San Ramon Valley (9-2-12)
4. Newark Memorial (18-1-4)
5. Richmond (11-1-9)
6. Miramonte (15-2-2)
7. Bishop O’Dowd (16-1-3)
8. St. Mary’s (12-3-4)
9. Logan (15-6-3)
10. Marin Academy (10-1-4)
11. Amador Valley (12-8-4)
12. Pittsburg (14-4-4)
13. Redwood (14-4-2)
14. Ygnacio Valley (13-4-5)
15. Clayton Valley (14-4-4)
16. Monte Vista (7-4-10)
17. Acalanes (15-7-1)
18. Las Lomas (15-4-3)
19. University (11-6-2)
20. Berkeley (14-3-6)
21. Concord (13-5-3)
22. Livermore (6-7-8)
23. Heritage (8-6-4)
24. Marin Catholic (12-6-2)
25. Branson 12-6-3


Pittsburg (14-4-4, 8-1-1) 25
Heritage (8-6-4, 6-3-1) 19
Freedom (11-7-5, 4-3-3) 15
Deer Valley (10-7-3, 4-4-2) 14
Liberty (3-11-1, 2-7-1) 7
Antioch (3-14-4, 1-7-2) 5

Foothill Division
Clayton Valley (14-4-4, 7-1-2) 23
Ygnacio Valley (13-4-5, 7-2-1) 22
Las Lomas (15-4-3, 5-3-2) 17
Northgate (6-9-5, 3-5-2) 11
Campolindo (6-13-4, 2-5-3) 9
College Park (5-14-4, 0-8-2) 2
Valley Division
Miramonte (15-2-2, 8-1-1) 25
Acalanes (15-7-1, 8-2-0) 24
Concord (13-5-3, 6-3-1) 19
Berean Chr. (12-5-4, 4-4-2) 14
Mt. Diablo (2-12-3, 1-8-1) 4
Alhambra (1-17-3, 0-9-1) 1

Mountain Division
De La Salle (13-2-7, 8-0-5) 29
San Ramon Valley (9-2-12, 6-0-7) 25
Monte Vista (7-4-10, 4-3-6) 18
California (7-9-5, 3-5-5) 14
Dougherty Valley (8-7-7, 2-5-6) 12
Valley Division
Amador Valley (12-8-4, 7-4-2) 23
Granada (8-5-7, 3-4-6) 15
Foothill (6-9-5, 3-6-4) 13
Livermore (6-7-8, 3-6-4) 13
Dublin (9-7-4, 2-7-4) 10

Redwood (14-4-2, 12-1-1) 37
Marin Catholic (12-6-2, 8-5-1) 25
Terra Linda (8-5-4, 7-3-4) 25
Branson (12-6-3, 7-4-3) 24
Drake (11-6-3, 7-4-3) 24
San Rafael (6-11-3, 6-5-3) 21
Tamalpais (4-7-5, 4-6-4) 16
San Marin (5-12-4, 3-6-5) 14
Novato (4-10-5, 2-8-4) 10
Justin-Siena (0-12-2, 0-12-2) 2

Newark Memorial (18-1-4, 13-0-1) 40
Logan (15-6-3, 12-2-0) 36
Kennedy (10-6-4, 8-3-3) 27
Irvington (6-10-2, 6-6-2) 20
Washington (3-12-4, 3-7-4) 13
Moreau Catholic (7-11-3, 3-9-2) 11
American (3-15-0, 3-11-0) 9
Mission San Jose (2-14-3, 1-11-2) 5

Montgomery (18-2-1, 14-0-0) 42
Rancho Cotate (16-3-0, 12-2-0) 36
Santa Rosa (8-7-0, 8-6-0) 24
Cardinal Newman (10-9-2, 6-7-1) 19
Windsor (7-10-2, 5-8-1) 16
Maria Carrillo (7-11-1, 5-9-0) 15
Casa Grande (7-13-1, 4-10-0) 12
Ukiah (1-13-1, 1-13-0) 3

Sonoma Valley (10-5-1, 10-1-1) 31
Piner (13-3-1, 10-2-0) 30
Analy (11-7-0, 7-5-0) 21
Elsie Allen (7-9-1, 5-6-1) 16
Healdsburg (4-8-4, 4-6-2) 14
Petaluma (3-14-1, 3-8-1) 10
El Molino (0-14-1, 0-11-1) 1

Rock Division
St. Mary’s (12-3-4, 8-0-2) 26
Richmond (11-1-9, 7-0-3) 24
De Anza (12-8-4, 5-5-0) 15
El Cerrito (8-11-2, 4-5-1) 13
Albany (5-10-1, 3-7-0) 9
Hercules (1-13-0, 0-10-0) 0
Stone Division
Kennedy (15-5-4, 7-0-1) 22
Pinole Valley (10-4-5, 6-1-1) 19
Salesian (5-10-0, 4-4-0) 12
St. Patrick-St. Vincent (1-9-0, 1-7-0) 3
Swett (2-8-0, 1-7-0) 3

Foothill Division
Bishop O’Dowd (16-1-3, 13-0-3) 42
Berkeley (14-3-6, 12-0-4) 40
Castro Valley (9-7-8, 8-4-4) 28
Mt. Eden (8-8-7, 6-6-4) 22
Arroyo (5-13-4, 5-8-3) 18
San Leandro (6-15-3, 5-9-2) 17
Shoreline Division
San Lorenzo (15-6-1, 11-4-1) 34
Hayward (12-9-0, 9-7-0) 27
Alameda (6-10-5, 5-6-5) 20
Piedmont (6-12-2, 5-9-2) 17
Encinal (1-13-2, 1-13-2) 5
Tennyson (0-22-2, 0-14-2) 2

Marin Academy (10-1-4)
Lick-Wilmerding (7-7-1)
University (11-6-2)
Valley Christian (0-8-0)

Kanghere, Newark 24
AlaTorre, SLZ 23
Khamush, Dublin 19
J. Santillan, Newark 19
Olaee, Irvington 18
Sievers, Branson 17
Barahona, Concord 17
Ju. Rodriguez, Kennedy-R 17
Doherty, DA 15
Perez, Hayward 15
Correa, Mt. Eden 15
Montoya, Pinole 14
Perez, Pinole 14
Edelstein, University 14
Kiehle, AV 13
Ruiz, Clayton 13
Jung, Marin Ac. 13
Garcia, Moreau 13
Perez, Pinole 13
Rogan, RW 13

Lombana, Newark 19
AlaTorre, SLZ 17
Kekre, Irvington 15
Lopez, Antioch 13
Rondan, Freedom 13
Bauchou, JFK-F 13
Harless, DA 12
Slominski, Livermore 12
Martinez, SLZ 11
Barahona, Concord 10
Rodriguez, Concord 10
Garcia, Granada 10
Esparza, Newark 10
Montoya, Pinole 10

300 thoughts on “Boys Soccer: Playoff Projections, Rankings

    1. DLS. Of the teams I have seen this year they seem to be the most well rounded and are able to keep consistent pressure on the other team. Usually grinding out a Win.

  1. Wonderful finish at SRV last night. Stefano Guariento with the ice cold side net finish to win it in Golden goal. This kid is cold blooded inside the 18. Congrats to SRV

  2. Matt is out of town, so here are all of tonight’s results:
    DLS 3 – Granada 0
    Pitt 3 – Berkeley 1
    SRV 1 – Cal 0 (OT)
    CV 0 – MV 1
    Montgomery 3 – SR 1
    YV 3 – LL 2 (2OT)
    Redwood 4 – Livermore 0
    Richmond 7 – Newark 0
    Miramonte 2 – Sonoma Valley 1
    Rancho 2 – Piner 1
    BOD 0 – TL 0 (BOD, pks)
    Acalanes 3 – SLZ 2
    MA 4 – Cardinal Newman 1
    Branson 5 – Marin Catholic 0
    University 4 – Piedmont 0
    St Mary’s 2 – Kennedy 1 (OT)

    1. The ref simply lost control of the game. Midway through the second half a scuffle broke out, couldn’t totally tell over what, and yellows were given to both SM and Kennedy players. I’m not sure if related or not, but during this stoppage the Kennedy goalkeeper was down with an injury and ended up missing the rest of the game. From here it devolved into both teams, coaches and fans chirping at the ref constantly, with Kennedy receiving a red for talking back and their coach being warned. At one point the announced had to come over the loudspeaker and remind everyone to be sportsmanlike and stop harassing the refs. Kennedy then tied it up late on a penalty, which while I’d agree was the right call is never an easy call to make for the away team in the dying minutes which I’m sure SM wasn’t happy about. When SM then scored in OT, some of the Kennedy players continued to go after them while also yelling at the fans, though while I couldn’t hear what was said I don’t doubt the fans were antagonizing them. Maybe someone else saw all this differently, just a neutral perspective. Shame because it could’ve been a very good game that just got somewhat out of hand.

      1. Thank you for this description of the events. Since I posted my question I received other neutral accounts that are consistent with yours.
        Saint Mary’s has been a very rough team for years and Kenned is always passionate and highly emotional. One would have thought that the official chosen for this game would have been experienced enough to manage such a contest.

        1. Officials can only do so much.
          Starts with the coach to the players and finally the fans. Both coaches, the players, and fans should be ashamed of themselves. Again, it goes back to being disciplined, hard working and showing respect for the game. And these teams wonder why they never become quality soccer programs.


          1. Angel, I did not mean to excuse the behavior of the actors of this game. I agree with your assessment of the teams wholeheartedly.

            My point was that, given the history of the programs and that it was a NCS quarterfinals, this should have been marked as an at risk game, and handled by an experienced officials team, which, I was told, was unfortunately not the case.

            1. Agreed.
              I can never figure out what the Referee schedulers are thinking. You’re absolutely correct with scheduling the ‘Right’ ref for certain games. The refs for EBAL have been exceptionally better than year’s past. As we all know it’s NEVER going to please everyone but it is what it is.

          2. @Angel Eyes – to diminish the work of the boys on both teams as well as the countless hours of the coaching staff shows that if you’ve ever dedicated as much time to any program as you did typing your comment, you would know that you are in the wrong. Yes, the game was tough but both teams played hard and gave it their all. Emotions always run high especially at this point in the season. Some of the kids reacted less than honorably perhaps, but cast the first stone if you are free of that reaction yourself. Instead, let’s use it as a teachable moment and not add fuel to the fire. Good job to both, Kennedy and Saint Mary’s for playing with heart, passion, dedication and love for the sport.

            1. FairPlay, respecting the game is an important part of the CIF philosophy, and of the philosophy of anyone who truly loves this game, who inherited it from the people who came before us and who is hoping to transmit it intact to future generations. The behavior of players, coaches and fans described above degrades our game. It is not saying that the players and coaches did not work very hard to get where they are. They did. They also have a responsibility towards the game itself and to themselves, which is too often forgotten in the pursuit of winning.

            2. @FairPlay-
              Sorry! I can’t excuse the disrespectful behavior of ANY coach and or player. I’ve spent countless hours coaching, attending and observing soccer matches both high school and club at the highest levels thus justifying my lengthy posts :). Using “Passion”, “Heart”, and “Dedication” as excuses to be play and or act disrespectful on the field is not acceptable. One common denominator I’ve seen over the many years of watching soccer at ANY level is the demeanor of the coach. The coach sets the tone for the team….PERIOD! Players react and play in direct relation to the coach. Overly aggressive, loud, and abusive coach equals the same for the players (No coincidence). I’ve seen it over and over. Well organized, somewhat passive, disciplined coach equals the same for the players.
              So you need to check yourself and “Read” my post more carefully. Unfortunately the poor behavior of a few can cast a dark shadow over those who are playing the game with respect. That’s what good teams do, watch after each other and enforce discipline. No disrespect to ANY of the Kennedy or St. Mary’s players, at least the ones who respect the game.

            3. I am agreeing with Zlaatan and Angel Eyes in the sense that player and coach behavior is ultimately their responsibility. Can officials make mistakes, sometimes big ones, and not be up for a particular game or not be the right ones for a given game? Absolutely, but remember sometimes it’s the players and coaches who make big mistakes or are not ready for an opponent in a given game– do we see the referees or spectators for that matter giving the players holy hell for their mistakes or general inadequacies? Coaches are central to this issue– they have the ability to control their players and to calm and set an example for the fans. The kids are teenagers but the coaches are adults, so I put a bigger responsibility on the coaches for how a poorly officiated game is handled on the team’s and specators’ end. (Not to excuse kids’ behavior– referees need to deal yellows and second yellows when necessary for dissent to control that.)
              All that said, the referees for a given game need to be the best possible officials for that game. Sometimes for multiple reasons, the best possible are not available. For example, did you know if Official John Doe referees (center referee) a team earlier in the tournament, he is not allowed to referee that team later on in the tournament. So the referee for the SM-JFK game, whoever it might be, would be ineligible for the winner’s semifinal and, if that team makes it to the final, the final.
              Also, teams need to see how a referee is handling a game and adjust. The most important two items in HS ball are: (1) Is the referee keeping it safe? and; (2) Is the referee consistent within that game? If the answer is yes to both, then adjust your physicality, etc. and move on. Coaches should save strongly worded feedback, to put it nicely, for after the game. Respectful, calm feedback should be welcome by referees during the game. Ultimately, complain to NCS and the referee organization after the game if the official truly did not have the skills for that game.

  3. Great win for Pittsburg tonight.

    I am extremely proud of how Berkeley represented themselves in a gut wrenching lose. This was an extremely gifted group that could for periods outplay anyone they faced despite a comical amount of injuries. Tonights game was a microcosm of our season, despite causing a ridiculous amount of opportunities they just couldn’t finish. Some of the interplay this evening was a joy to watch and the future for this team is bright.

    Matt I’m sorry to see you go. This blog makes coaching in High School that much better and I am sorry to see you go.

    1. Coach, I enjoyed watching your team play this year very much. As you say, the interplay was at times quite exciting. Congratulations for the work you have been doing at Berkeley. Gone are the days of Janu Juarez ! And congratulations to the young men you coach.

  4. MV 1-0 Castro Valley
    St. Mary’s 2-1 Kennedy

    I heard the St. Mary’s game was incredibly contentious.

    Sorry for the lack of updates. I am out of town.

  5. From the NCS web site:
    Redwood 4 – Livermore 0
    BOD 0 – TL 0 (BOD, pks)
    MA 4 – Cardinal Newman 1
    Branson 5 – Marin Catholic 0
    University 4 – Piedmont 0

  6. My predictions today…
    Division I
    DLS 2-1 Granada (hard fought win for Sparty)
    Pitt 3-2 Berkeley (the most entertaining match of the day)
    SRV 1-0 Cal (So many 1-0 L’s for Cal this year… does that change?)
    MV 2-0 Castro Valley

    Division II
    Monty 3-0 SR
    YV 2-1 LL (double OT)
    RW 1-3 Livermore
    Richmond 3-2 Newark (OT)

    Division III
    Miramonte 2-0 Sonoma Valley
    Rancho 2-3 Piner
    BOD 3-1 TL
    Acalanes 3-2 SLZ (hard fought win for the Dons)

    Division IV
    Marin Ac. 3-1 CN
    Branson 1-2 Marin Catholic
    St. Mary’s 3-1 JFK-R
    University 3-1 Piedmont

    Anybody care to tally how I did on Wednesday?

  7. D1:
    DLS 1-0 Granada
    Pitt 3-1 Berkeley
    SRV 2-0 Cal
    MV 2-1 Cv

    Montgomery 3-0 Santa Rosa
    YV 2-1 LL
    Redwood 1-1 Livermore (Redwood in PKs)
    Richmond 3-1 Newark

    Miramonte 2-0 Sonoma
    Piner 1-1 Rancho (Piner PKs)
    O Dowd 2-1 Terra Linda
    Acalanes 1-2 San Lorenzo

    MA 3-0 Cardinal Newman
    Branson 2-2 MC (Branson PKs)
    SM 3-1 Kennedy
    University 1-0 Piedmont

    1. D4:
      MA 3-1 Newman
      Branson 1-2 MC (2OT)
      SM 1-2 JFK-R
      Univ 2-0 Piedmont

      Miramonte 2-2 SV (Miramonte 4-3 PK’s)
      Rancho 4-2 Piner
      BOD 3-1 TL
      Acalanes 2-1 SL

      Monty 4-1 Rosa
      YV 2-1 LL
      Redwood 3-2 Livermore
      Richmond 1-1 Newark (Newark 6-5 PK’s)

      DLS 3-1 Granada
      Pitt 3-1 Berkeley
      SRV 1-2 Cal (1OT)
      MV 3-1 CV

      Good luck to all, and work hard!

    1. D1 Teams I’ve seen:
      CV-2 MV-2: CV plays solid defense and capitalizes on your mistakes, and MV will make a couple of mistakes. MV will come at you non-stop for 80 minutes. CV wins on PKs

      SRV-2 Cal-1: Cal plays great defense, and SRV is solid everywhere. Both teams are capable of making a mistake at the back, but I’m not sure that will matter in this matchup. SRV seemed to control the ball a little better than Cal, but can be slightly reckless at the outside back position. Both are very organized.

      Pitt-# Berkeley-#: Pitt is everything Dougherty coach said and well coached, and mature enough to stick to a game plan for a full 80 minutes. They can beat anyone at anytime on any field. Berkeley is active, dynamic, and too young to worry about the scale of the moment. Both teams have speed, but Pitt is better at connecting passes. Berkeley never stops attacking. No clue on the final score, but the max goals for either will be 3, and there will be goals.

      D1 Teams I haven’t seen:
      DLS-1 Granada-1: Granada will play their best defensive game of the year. DLS will score a nice goal from a long build up of play, and Granada will equalize on a lucky bounce or Pen. No shame there mates, all goals are equal. Granada wins on PKs.

    1. Granada vs DLS is going to be ugly, ref better bring a deck of cards for the night. Maybe Granada should demand a VAR in place!

      1. Why?
        DLS played at Granada to a draw earlier in the season with no issues. Both teams played hard and clean. Coaches and Refs need to set the tone. No need to risk getting red cards and potentially being benched…..AV knows that all to well.

        1. I think the operative phrase here was the last meeting was “at Granada” – this game is at DLS!
          Hope they stream it, sometimes the DLS soccer games are online. Wear your shin-pads.

  8. Division I
    DLS 3-1 DV
    Logan 1-2 Granada
    Pitt 4-1 Dougherty
    Berkeley 1-1 Freedom (Berkeley advances on PK’s)
    SRV 3-1 Dublin
    Clayton 0-1 Cal
    AV 1-2 Castro Valley
    MV 3-1 Heritage
    Division II
    Concord 2-3 Santa Rosa
    YV 5-0 Alameda
    LL 5-1 Maria Carrillo
    Livermore 5-1 Mt. Eden
    Newark 1-0 Hayward
    Division III
    Drake 1-3 Sonoma Valley
    Rancho 4-1 JFK-F
    Piner 4-3 Analy
    BOD 5-0 San Rafael
    TL 4-2 Pinole
    Acalanes 2-0 Albany
    SLZ 7-0 DA
    Division IV
    Lick 2-4 CN
    Branson 4-0 Salesian
    Marin Catholic 3-1 Moreau
    JFK-R 3-0 Healdsburg
    Berean 1-1 Piedmont (Piedmont advances on PK’s)

      1. Absolutely they can. It’s just about enrollment, it has nothing to do with your league. Leagues are generally based on geography with competitive balance factored in.

      2. And if a school’s enrollment is on the cusp of the dividing point between two divisions, their division can change from one year to the next if their enrollment goes up or down enough.

        The NBL almost had teams in all 4 divisions this year but Santa Rosa’s enrollment dipped, dropping them just barely into D2.

  9. Santa Rosa 3 Concord 2
    Santa Rosa up 2-1 at half and sealed the game with a late header. Thoughts on Santa Rosa’s chances against Montgomery?

    1. Anything can happen when two teams know each other so well. Third time they play this year, they all play club together at either SRU or Atletico. Monty is strong, it will take a no mistakes game to beat them and some luck.

  10. Pittsburg 4-1 Dougherty
    Thank you for a great season boys, and Matt, I will be forever grateful for the blog you created. I am still clinging to the hope you won’t go but whatever is best for you my friend.

      1. They play a nice fast brand of football. They have a good first touch and they have very nice vision. They have a lot of good players but for obvious reasons I can’t point any out with another playoff game looming.

            1. If coaches want to scout, get to the games. GO look at posted stats if there are any. Look for video online. Don’t ask a fellow coach to drop a scouting report on the blog.

              Bad form. 😀

  11. Wow, AV just can’t seem to be strong in the right moments…
    2014: Lost in Semis in PKs, missing the potential winner
    2015: missed playoffs by 2 games, lost or tied final 8 games
    2016: lose or tie final 4 games, lose 1-0 in playoffs on goal with 5 minutes left
    2017: Lose in PKs as the 4 seed, missing 3 PKs
    2018: Blow 1-0 halftime lead as 3 seed

    Coaching issues? Lack of desire? Who knows

    1. From playing against AV I can say I was not impressed w their “will to win” often key in the run down the stretch and in ncs.

        1. Funny how AV loses and all of a sudden the EBAL is “overrated”. Check the record for the whole night:
          EBAL wins – DLS, SRV, MV, Cal, Granada, Livermore
          EBAL losses – AV, Dougherty, Dublin (who played SRV)
          Good thing Foothill didn’t play or they might have had another win!

  12. Hey Matt, just so you know all the comments aren’t in one place anymore, maybe its just me. Might not be in your control but some keep disappearing on me to an “older comments” section

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