Boys Soccer: Updated Playoff Picture, Rankings, Standings, Stats

Boys Soccer: Updated Playoff Picture, Rankings, Standings, Stats

One week. Which teams will move off the bubble?

Division I

Locks: Amador Valley, Berkeley, California, Clayton Valley, De La Salle, Deer Valley, Dublin, Freedom, Granada, Logan, MV, Pitt, San Ramon Valley

AV and Cal are now locks. That makes 13.

Likely In: Heritage

I think Heritage is in great shape. They have matchups against two teams they’ve beat to end the year. They only need a draw to get eligible, but a pair of wins would really cement things.

On the Bubble: Castro Valley, College Park, Dougherty Valley, Foothill, Irvington

There are 13 locks, and I think Heritage is safe as well. These leaves two spots.

Castro Valley – Foothill having an undefeated week did Castro Valley no favors. If both Foothill and Dougherty get eligible, I think Castro Valley will be left out.

College Park – Still needs to beat Clayton this week to get eligible.

Dougherty Valley – Back down to the bubble as they sit exactly .500 overall and have two tough matchups with SRV and Dublin. The derby to end the year could be a win or go home scenario.

Foothill – The Falcons are not out of it yet. A good week last week sets up some final week drama. They have to have at least a win or a draw against Livermore and AV. If they get eligible, they are in.

Irvington – The Vikings are eligible. They will likely need Dougherty and Foothill to not become eligible. If that happens, and CP does get eligible, then it comes down to resumes with CP and Irvington.

Division II

Locks: Concord, Hayward, Las Lomas, Livermore, Maria Carrillo, Montgomery, Mt. Eden, Newark Memorial, Redwood, Richmond, Santa Rosa, YV

Hayward and Santa Rosa are locks, making 12.

Likely In: N/A

On the Bubble: Casa Grande, Northgate

Casa Grande – Casa only gets in if they split their final two matches, or draw them both. That will be tough as they are playing Monty and Santa Rosa.

Northgate – The Broncos really needed a win against Campo. A win there would have set up just needing a draw this week. Now they need to draw both LL and YV to get in with league record, or beat LL to get in with Division record.

Division III

Locks: Acalanes, Analy, Bishop O’Dowd, De Anza, Kennedy-Fremont, Miramonte, Piner, Pinole Valley, Rancho Cotate, San Lorenzo, Sir Frances Drake, Sonoma Valley, Terra Linda

Sonoma Valley and Terra Linda are locked in. That’s 13.

Likely In: Albany, San Rafael

I think Albany and San Rafael of the most likely of the bubble teams to get in once the locks are all settled.

On the Bubble: Campolindo, Elsie Allen, Encinal

Room for just one of these teams.

Campo – They are a lock if they get eligible. That’s going to be tough. They are a game under .500 in league, which is their one way in, and have to play Clayton and LL. A loss in either of those games, and they are eliminated.

Allen – Getting eligible will be hard. They have to go a game over .500 with the rest of their three league matches, and play Piner and Sonoma Valley, the top two teams in the league.

Encinal – Would need to beat SLZ in one of their two matchups this weekend. Going to be tough to get eligible.

Division IV

Locks: Berean Christian, Branson, Cardinal Newman, Healdsburg, Kennedy-Richmond, Marin Academy, Marin Catholic, Moreau Catholic, Salesian, St. Mary’s, University

Healdsburg and Salesian are locks with guaranteed .500 records in one of the three categories. That makes 11.

Likely In: Piedmont

Piedmont just needs a draw against either Alameda or Hayward.

On the Bubble: Lick Wilmerding

Lick is now squarely on the bubble. Need to somehow get a win and a draw out of their last two matches with University and Marin Academy.


There is a new No. 1. Marin Academy keeps winning, and I can’t keep them at No. 2 DLS had two draws this week, and it’s only fair to move MA up.

Monty jumps to No. 3, while Richmond is up to No. 6, Logan to No. 8 and Miramonte is up at No. 9. AV is back in the top ten and legitimately in contention for the EBAL crown.

BOD moves up four spots to No. 12 and Pitt moves up four spots to No. 14. YV makes a five spot jump to No. 19.

Rancho enters back into the rankings at No. 21 while Branson and Piner debut.

1. Marin Academy (10-0-3)
2. De La Salle (11-2-7)
3. Montgomery (15-2-1)
4. San Ramon Valley (8-2-11)
5. Newark Memorial (16-1-4)
6. Richmond (9-1-9)
7. St. Mary’s (10-2-2)
8. Logan (13-5-3)
9. Miramonte (13-2-2)
10. Amador Valley (11-7-4)
11. Acalanes (14-6-1)
12. Bishop O’Dowd (14-1-3)
13. Granada (8-4-6)
14. Pittsburg (12-4-4)
15. Redwood (13-4-1)
16. Concord (13-4-2)
17. Berkeley (13-3-5)
18. Monte Vista (6-4-9)
19. Ygnacio Valley (11-4-5)
20. Clayton Valley (12-4-4)
21. Rancho Cotate (15-2-0)
22. Las Lomas (13-4-3)
23. San Lorenzo (13-5-1)
24. Branson (11-5-3)
25. Piner (12-2-1)


Pittsburg (12-4-4, 6-1-1) 19
Deer Valley (10-6-2, 4-3-1) 13
Heritage (6-6-4, 4-3-1) 13
Freedom (10-7-4, 3-3-2) 11
Liberty (3-9-1, 2-5-1) 7
Antioch (3-12-4, 1-5-2) 5

Foothill Division
Clayton Valley (12-4-4, 5-1-2) 17
Ygnacio Valley (11-4-5, 5-2-1) 16
Las Lomas (13-4-3, 3-3-2) 11
Northgate (6-7-5, 3-3-2) 11
Campolindo (6-11-4, 2-3-3) 9
College Park (5-12-4, 0-6-2) 2
Valley Division
Acalanes (14-6-1, 7-1-0) 21
Miramonte (13-2-2, 6-1-1) 19
Concord (13-4-2, 6-2-0) 18
Berean Chr. (11-5-3, 3-4-1) 10
Alhambra (1-15-3, 0-7-1) 1
Mt. Diablo (1-11-3, 0-7-1) 1

Mountain Division
De La Salle (11-2-7, 6-0-5) 23
San Ramon Valley (8-2-11, 5-0-6) 21
California (7-7-5, 3-4-5) 14
Monte Vista (6-4-9, 3-3-5) 14
Dougherty Valley (6-6-7, 1-4-6) 9
Valley Division
Amador Valley (11-7-4, 6-3-2) 20
Granada (8-4-6, 3-3-5) 14
Foothill (6-7-5, 3-4-4) 13
Dublin (9-6-3, 2-6-3) 9
Livermore (4-7-8, 1-6-4) 7

Redwood (13-4-1, 12-1-1) 37
Marin Catholic (11-6-1, 8-5-1) 25
Terra Linda (8-4-4, 7-3-4) 25
Branson (11-5-3, 7-4-3) 24
Drake (11-5-3, 7-4-3) 24
San Rafael (6-11-3, 6-5-3) 21
Tamalpais (4-7-5, 4-6-4) 16
San Marin (5-12-4, 3-6-5) 14
Novato (4-10-5, 2-8-4) 10
Justin-Siena (0-12-2, 0-12-2) 2

Newark Memorial (16-1-4, 11-0-1) 34
Logan (13-5-3, 10-1-0) 30
Kennedy (9-6-3, 7-3-2) 23
Irvington (6-8-1, 6-4-1) 19
Washington (3-11-3, 3-6-3) 12
American (3-13-0, 3-9-0) 9
Moreau Catholic (6-11-2, 2-9-1) 7
Mission San Jose (1-13-3, 0-10-2) 2

Montgomery (15-2-1, 11-0-0) 33
Rancho Cotate (15-2-0, 11-1-0) 33
Santa Rosa (7-6-0, 7-5-0) 21
Maria Carrillo (7-8-1, 5-6-0) 15
Cardinal Newman (8-9-2, 4-7-1) 13
Casa Grande (7-11-1, 4-8-0) 12
Windsor (5-10-2, 3-8-1) 10
Ukiah (1-11-1, 1-11-0) 3

Piner (12-2-1, 9-1-0) 27
Sonoma Valley (8-5-1, 8-1-1) 25
Analy (11-6-0, 7-4-0) 21
Elsie Allen (6-8-1, 4-5-1) 13
Petaluma (3-12-1, 3-6-1) 10
Healdsburg (2-8-4, 2-6-2) 8
El Molino (0-13-1, 0-10-1) 1

Rock Division
St. Mary’s (10-2-4, 8-0-2) 26
Richmond (9-1-9, 7-0-3) 24
De Anza (12-7-4, 5-5-0) 15
El Cerrito (8-11-2, 4-5-1) 13
Albany (5-9-1, 3-7-0) 9
Hercules (1-13-0, 0-10-0) 0
Stone Division
Kennedy (14-5-3, 7-0-1) 22
Pinole Valley (9-4-4, 6-1-1) 19
Salesian (5-9-0, 4-4-0) 12
St. Patrick-St. Vincent (1-8-0, 1-7-0) 3
Swett (1-8-0, 1-7-0) 3

Foothill Division
Berkeley (13-3-5, 11-0-3) 36
Bishop O’Dowd (14-1-3, 11-0-3) 36
Castro Valley (9-6-7, 8-3-3) 27
Mt. Eden (7-7-7, 5-5-4) 19
San Leandro (6-13-2, 5-7-1) 16
Arroyo (4-12-4, 4-7-3) 15
Shoreline Division
San Lorenzo (13-5-1, 9-3-1) 28
Hayward (11-9-0, 7-7-0) 21
Piedmont (6-11-1, 5-8-1) 16
Alameda (4-11-2, 3-7-2) 11
Encinal (1-11-1, 1-11-1) 4
Tennyson (0-19-1, 0-11-1) 1

Marin Academy (10-0-3)
Lick-Wilmerding (6-6-1)
University (10-6-1)
Valley Christian (0-8-0)

Kanghere, Newark 23
Khamush, Dublin 18
Barahona, Concord 17
Ju. Rodriguez, Kennedy-R 17
J. Santillan, Newark 17
Sievers, Branson 16
Olaee, Irvington 16
Doherty, DA 15
Perez, Hayward 15
AlaTorre, SLZ 14
Edelstein, University 14
Kiehle, AV 13
Jung, Marin Ac. 13
Perez, Pinole 13
Rogan, RW 13
Hausser, BOD 12
A. Padilla, Freedom 12
Correan, Mt. Eden 12
Montoya, Pinole 12
Reynoso, SL 12

Lombana, Newark 17
Lopez, Antioch 13
Bauchou, JFK-F 13
Harless, DA 12
Rondan, Freedom 12
AlaTorre, SLZ 11
Martinez, SLZ 11
Barahona, Concord 10
Kekre, Irvington 10
Esparza, Newark 10
Rodriguez, Concord 9
Garcia, Granada 9
Sandoval, Newark 9
Galvan, Pinole 9
Montonya, Pinole 9

268 thoughts on “Boys Soccer: Updated Playoff Picture, Rankings, Standings, Stats

  1. Here’s everything I have before I lay my weary head to bed.
    Antioch 0-5 Pitt
    Freedom 1-1 DV
    Cal 1-3 DLS
    MV 2-2 SRV
    AV 3-0 FH
    Livermore 3-1 Granada
    Analy 1-2 Sonoma Valley
    JFK-Richmond 0-0 Pinole (JFK wins TCAL tourney on penalties)

    1. If you are a league’s automatic qualifier, which rounds do you get home games, assuming you are not playing another league’s automatic qualifier who is seeded higher than you? Round of 16 and quarterfinals? Also the semifinals?

        1. Well, you definitely don’t want to play them at their place on their middle school sized field. Their refs just allow them to get away with everything, and a level of chippy play, late hits, aggressive pressure, yelling etc…. that is not allowed in most places, so if you are not ready for that – get ready to lose. I think they were undefeated at home.

          But in soccer, if it is allowed to happen – it will.
          Here is what you can expect when you play at Sparty – I think they have this same referee on retainer 🙂

        2. I can honestly say the refs were fair when we played DLS and Derrick and his crew were classy. I am not sure why people talk about DLS in a negative fashion. I have a lot of admiration for their program and players.

        3. Whah!!!!
          At least come up with a different ‘EXCUSE’ or ‘LAME’ reason why DLS out works you, out plays you and does it year after year after year after year. It’s funny how you don’t hear these ‘Sorry’ excuses from good soccer programs with good coaches, players, and fans who respect the game (Dougherty, SRV, Richmond, Cal etc…. to just name a few).
          And guess what???? We’re not going away.
          Best of Luck to all NCS teams who make the playoffs.

      1. The league offices should look at taking disciplinary actions against De La Salle #6, as he threw deliberate elbows in back to back games, causing both players to go to the hospital afterward.

        1. Yep agree 100%
          One kid had to have surgery and the other kid had to get stitches.
          And you can’t tell me it wasn’t deliberate after watching film. Dirty dirty player!

  2. I cannot believe the SRV/ MV match ended in a 2-2! Not possible. How could anyone have seen this coming? The teams are sooo far apart in all their stats. SRV is soooo much better than MV with all their D1 players. Waiting for the SRV excuses—-

    1. Let’s talk about the fact that Monte Vista led with 4 minutes left, and their D1 goalkeeper commit completely whiffed on what was supposed to be a cross from an SR winger and BLEW the win for his team! Good luck to you big man!

      1. I am sure he feels horrible. What is there to talk about? A kid made a mistake. But what about the kid getting beat for the serve in? Why not blame the goal on him?
        Or the kid that lost the ball in the first place, it must be his fault. Team sport- 10 other players had opportunities all night long.
        Win and lose as a team. Win or lose why always put it on 1 kid? Why does everyone keep bringing up about how whether a kid is going D1 or not? Enlighten me on the D1 thing please.

        1. Totally agree, soccer is a team sport and blame can never be assigned to any individual player. With that said, if you are committed to play in college (no matter the division) that’s a save you have to make. Especially with the game on the line. Very questionable decision to try and catch that ball. All MV keeper has to do is either punch it away or tip it over the crossbar. Overall MV controlled the tempo for most of the game and created more quality chances on net. Good luck to both sides in NCS!

        2. Goal was scored on off the SRV kickoff. Players kicked ball back and then sent it long diagonal ball to the SRV players running down the line. SRV player takes shot/cross and the MV totally misplays it. Cannot put the blame on anyone else in the this situation if you were actually watching the game. Took the crowd out of the game after that point.

            1. ok, I agree with you, but I think as an observer who watched the game, the goalie was still partially responsible for not making the play when he needed to.

        3. Quit it with the tough guy act and all the show business that I’ve seen from this kid since his freshman year on varsity. Focus on the hard work and effort it takes to play the position. I think that’s why it’s hard to watch him lose games for his team over and over again. When you act that pretty, you better be able to deliver on a play like that.

  3. Dublin 1-2 Dougherty
    A really fun game to be a part of. My beta blockers earned their money tonight! EBAL is definitely a high standard and a fun but very tough league to coach in. Congrats to all the Dublin seniors tonight.

  4. DLS EBAL Champion
    Maxpreps has SRV and MV ending in a tie tonight, so that should give DLS the title as they were 2 pts ahead of SRV before tonights games.

      1. Very tense game, with few opportunities on either side. Richmond had a couple good chances before they scored, with 1 minute left in normal time. Too bad this game had to be played at Albany, one of the smallest fields in TCAL, and sadly not in very good shape either. Congrats to both teams on a spirited, hard-fought game. They had tied twice in league play. Both teams are quality sides in their own ways. They will both advance to NCS playoffs.

  5. This SRV-MV banter is totally awesome. I mean can these 2 teams just play each other every week? New to this blog this year, I had no idea how much you guys don’t like each other. Was that too mild? Would someone please post scoring changes as they happen. I’m seriously totally captivated. As an impartial viewer of EBAL, it’s hard not to appreciate all of the enthusiasm/trash talk. And I thought that it was everyone against DLS. How naive I am. Just scoring changes though. Please no play by play commentary or player bashing. The kids work too hard to be disrespected. Thanks in advance.

    1. Dublin versus DV is pretty big rivalry game too both teams moved from DFAL to EBAL together last year keeping their rivalry up and so far it’s been 7 years without a win for DV against Dublin but this season is probably the closest they’ve ever been in terms of quality and also tonight a win is a must for Dv to get into NCS and it’s also Dublin’s senior night so that should be a massive game in the history of that rivalry lol. Granada v Livermore a good rivalry too as well as Foothill v Amador. Form just goes out the window when those games come around.

  6. For all the SRV peeps/Parents bagging on MV. You really are bagging on your own team. You keep saying how much better you are than MV. Yes their records are different, which would lead you to believe that you are a superior team. But stats don’t lie-
    SRV- (21 games)
    GFA- 1.61
    GAA- 1.09
    MV- (20 games)
    GFA- 1.6
    GAA- 1.0
    So really just identical teams with a few different results. Records don’t mean anything in a rivalry game by the way.

  7. To all those upset with Matt’s rankings this year, and to those who say EBAL is overrated: Look at the history of NCS playoff games and tell me how EBAL is overrated. Besides Berkeley winning last year, a team from another conference just hasn’t put up the necessary work in the playoffs.

    1. Hi all, Signing day I believe was earlier this week. Does anyone have any information on who might have committed to any schools? I’m sure there must be some. This would be a great time to get some free publicity!! Good luck to all players heading off to school in the fall!! Also, good luck to all teams that have gotten into the tournament. I know what a grind it is for these terrific young men! All the best and we should all applaud them for the dedication, determination and tremendous sacrifices they have made this year!! Well done lads!! Cheers!!!

  8. EBAL Champion Tie?
    It could be very likely that SRV and DLS end up tied on points after tonight. Anyone know how to interpret the EBAL tie-breaker rules below?

    SRV & DLS tied each other twice during the season, so it should move to Step 2. I am not sure what they mean by “rounds” (are we playing golf). Any thoughts?

    Tie Breaker System
    Used to determine EBAL designated champion for NCS Championships, unless a sport has other tie-breaker system.

    Sec. 1 Records-head to head in the tie.
    Sec. 2 Best record of last round played.
    Sec. 3 Winner of last round.

  9. WACC Update:
    BOD 5-0 Mt. Eden
    Berkeley 2-2 Castro Valley

    This means if BOD beats Castro Valley away on Friday, they clinch league over Berkeley. BOD beat CV 2-0 in their previous meeting.

  10. Great to see the blog taking off again after a slow year. We will get back to the 1,000 per week posts we used to have soon. It makes the season so much more fun when people post frequent score updates and thoughts on teams and games. A huge thanks to Matt for keeping it going and hopefully it will go from strength to strength again now.

  11. Great game last night between Logan and Newark. Both teams are really good.
    How much does that loss to Newark hurt Logan’s seed/rank? Matt, where do you see Logan and Newark ending up in the NCS brackets?

    1. I don’t think it will hurt Logan, especially because it’s a D2 team, and a top one at that. The committee cares more about inter-division matches. Logan will still be a top 6 seed.

      Newark is going to be one of the highest seeds in Division II. Top three for sure, maybe top two.

  12. Extremely excited to see the MV v SRV game. I have heard a lot about this Stefano kid and I am really excited to see him compete against Monte Vista.

    1. Is this really MVSoccerDad??Orrrr??? SRVDad2??
      The only time I have seen a post from either handle it seems to be about a Stefano on SRV (I think 4 posts, maybe 5 total). Somethings fishy🤔
      Look familiar-
      SRVDad2 says:
      January 12, 2018 at 8:24 am
      Stefano Guariento on SRV. No ketchup. Just sauce. Raw sauce. This kid is going D1, most likely to UCSB or Cal.

      Maybe D1 Stefano and the rest of the mids/forwards can score some more goals and get W’s instead of T’s. Maybe they can Tie their way to a NCS Championship. Let me know how that works out.

      1. Ok buddy. Let me know the next monte vista gets a win. I hear they are very good this year and have a lot of extremely talented D1 bound kids. Oh wait wrong school, actually SRV does, expect SRV is too smart to actually except these D1 offers. They don’t even succumb to taking D3 like some MV kids. This is not even gonna be close on Thursday, Monte Vista has their hands full with the better team over at SRV.

        1. Having trouble following your post. According to your logic a D1 college player is better than any D3 player? Maybe a D3 player turned down a D1 offer to attend a better College (that whole education thing). Pretty sure College is a about more than are you a D1 or D3 player. I give props to any kid that has put in the work and has the opportunity to play in College, regardless of what school they choose. Congrats and good luck to them.
          Back to MV vs SRV-
          SRV has trouble scoring without bring bring up their back line, or set Pieces. Which then leaves them open in the back line for attacks. Resulting in—- a Tie.
          MV has trouble all over the field. They are just average everywhere except goal. They have 2 good keepers.Look at their record.
          My guess based on their current records- a TIE.

          1. I am having a hard time following your argument when SRV’s leading goalscorer is their forward. They are not reliant on having their backline come up to score, eventhough the Davis headcoach said the SRV left-back was the best in the state. If you want to see the poor quality of play by MV then come watch tonight’s game. It will not be a tie i promise you that. I have seen enough SR-MV games to know that last game was a fluke. SRV dominated the whole game and were let down by poor officiating and a flop by MV’s forward who is well known to dive in big moments.

            1. Sounds like a typical analysis of why a team can’t get a win. We were the better team, had more possession, bad officials, a dive. Just more excuses. Why not blame the turf, warm weather, or the soccer balls while you are at it. I never said that the back line scored. Please re-read my earlier post, think about it for a while, learn the game and then come back with a real argument. Something like-
              SRV had the better possession but were unable to break down the MV defense in the final third.
              Or SRV had shot after shot on goal but the MV keeper played out of his mind that night.
              Or MV played like Mourinho’s Chelsea and they were able to get a goal on the counter to tie the game up.

              We’ll see what happens tonight.

              1. The only time that MV was dangerous all night was on their free kick in the second half which they scored on. They were awarded that free kick after a blatant dive by their forward. Do you happen to play for MV?

                1. No I do not. So you are saying MV was dangerous for a moment, which they converted on! So, they were 100% on there goal scoring opportunities in that game. Maybe MV is just better at finishing their chances than SRV. Maybe Raw Sauce will show up tonight.

            1. But—MV did win the last time they faced each other in an important match- 2016 NCS Championship! Just stating a fact.

  13. RW 3-1 Branson
    Marin Catholic 1-0 TL
    Moreau 1-1 Washington
    Logan 2-3 Newark
    Casa 0-5 Monty
    Berkeley 2-2 Castro Valley
    Alameda 1-1 Piedmont
    Hayward 6-4 SLZ
    Lick 0-1 University

  14. SCL Update:

    Elsie has a 5-5-1 league record, so needs a draw or win against Piner tomorrow to be eligible. Elsie is minus 3 on division W-L, so league/overall is their only chance to get in.

    League champion likely (depending on tomorrow’s results) will be decided on Saturday afternoon when Piner hosts Sonoma Valley.

        1. Upon closer review (since I answered a Berkeley question last night)

          I would say

          1. DLS
          2. SRV
          3. AV/MV (higher finisher in league of the two)
          4. MV (lower finisher in league of the two)
          5. Pitt
          6. Logan
          7. Berkeley
          8. Clayton
          9-11 – Heritage, Cal, Granada (can’t really decide now)
          12. Freedom
          13. Dublin
          14. DV
          15-16 – Dougherty/Castro Valley/CP/Irvington

          1. So you are picking Pitt to win the D1 title this year. They’ll be happy to hear that. Sorry we forced your hand on picking your seeds before the weekend.

          2. I like it!
            College will lose to Clayton and be eliminated.
            Dougherty beats Dublin and gets IN.
            Irvington qualifies but does not get selected.
            Castro Valley solidifies last spot at 16 unless they play spoiler with a win over BOD.
            Granada & Cal end up higher than Heritage. Granada at 9 would travel to Clayton at 8, Granada wins.
            Freedom wins last match with DV and could jump above Heritage in the committee’s mind.
            Berkeley wins out and may be league champs over BOD. In that case I see them above Pitt & Logan at 6 & 7, Berk 5.
            MV cannot catch AV except to tie in pts, but AV wins head-to-head with the win in their only mtg.
            MV 4, AV 3, SRV 2, DLS 1

          3. Clayton & Berkeley are probably swappable, but it would be right if Berkeley and SRV weren’t on the same side of the draw.

      1. How do you justify putting MV in the top four given their subpar performance in EBAL this year, if you decide to put them in the top 4.

        1. First of all, I don’t put anyone anywhere. The committee does. Secondly, look at the list of teams that are candidates for the four seed.

          Logan? MV beat them. MV drew with Berkeley, but Logan beat Berkeley. Pitt and MV drew. But look at common opponents. CP beat Pitt, drew with MV. AV beat Pitt by two goals, beat MV by one.

          I’m just telling you what the committee sees. MV will be in the top four.

    1. Matt, if you say that Foothill is now eliminated from NCS playoffs, does that also mean that if Cal and Dougherty both lose on Thursday they too are eliminated? So much for EBAL getting everyone in…

      1. Cal already qualified. (See Matt’s breakdown of Div 1) So EBAL will get at least 7 of 9 Div 1 schools from their league, maybe 8 of 9 if Dougherty beats Dublin tomorrow. Some schools should thank the EBAL for knocking out Foothill and making room for other early round exit teams. Someone gets to have a 1 game NCS experience!

    2. Where do you think a heritage side with wins over freedom,Deer Valley, Foothill, Castro Valley and Second place in leauge will seat in the playoffs with this eligibility ?

  15. Dougherty 1-2 SRV

    What a game tonight! Fantastic game of soccer. Really enjoyed it and it could have gone either way with both sides hitting the wood work. Devastated to ship a late goal but happy to see two great teams go at it.

  16. Castro Valley, College Park and Irvington all breathe a sigh of relief with that Foothill loss. The Falcons are eliminated.

        1. Win over SRV will carry some weight. Draw with MV, too. Like I said, I reserve the right to change my mind come Saturday night when I do my predictions.

      1. Chin up man – it’s playoff time! No one cares about the regular season, well except for the rivalry games, of course. The chatter will get going now, don’t worry. There appear to be no clearly dominant teams out there this year (yes, I said that, and stand by it), so everyone is laying low. EBAL is balanced, so it has the appearance of depth. Every other league has a few contenders at the top. There are plenty of solid defensive teams, but no really consistent offensive juggernauts (If you score at will against a great defensive team, then you can consider yourself to be a juggernaut). I predict that all (ok, most) of the NCS games will go to AET or PK shootouts. You heard it here first.

  17. Matt, How does College Park get eligible again? Looks like they are way under 500 in all categories. You have them on the bubble.

      1. And that is why you are the “Matt-ster”. Missed that myself. Love that they have a shot still. What a great year for NCS Soccer!

  18. Enjoy the work you do Matt. I do have some trepidation about the placement of Bishop O’Dowd in the rankings. This is a team that has been unbeaten since December 9th and has only allowed 1 league goal, a PK against Berkeley, and has only allowed 5 goals all year.

    They are a Division 3 school with this current record against all Divisions:
    Division 1: 4-0-2
    Division 2: 5-0-1
    Division 3: 4-1
    Division 4: 1-0

    It would be nice to see consistent teams get some credit, as opposed to “Power Schools” staying up because they are “Power Schools”.

    1. I totally hear you, and I have had a hard time with deciding what to do with BOD, but their best win since the the WSC is a win over SLZ, which is currently ranked inside the top 25. They weren’t at the time of the match. I suppose that’s why I’ve moved them up so slowly. Maybe I’ve been too harsh.

      1. Understandable, I just think sometimes there is an “SEC effect” with some schools. Meaning, teams in their league start the season ranked high and when teams lose or tie to each other in league, it is deemed a “good loss” or “good result” because the opponent is ranked so high. Yet, in other leagues a tie can be seen as poor.

        Case in point: SRV ties California and Livermore in the week starting 1/22 and drops one spot in the 1/29 rankings.

        O’Dowd ties Arroyo and beats Mt. Eden in the week starting 1/15 and drops 4 spots in the 1/22 rankings.

        1. Another example, Bishop O’Dowd has head-to-head and better record than Acalanes, yet has been ranked behind them the last 3 rankings.

        2. Arroyo & Mt. Eden are not Cal & Liv. There are many ways to see the strength of schedule, and the difference between schools. Matt has proven year after year to be spot on. BOD doesn’t have the body of work many other schools do. It is the same issue Dublin is facing. Great record against softer schools, but lacking quality wins. Who is strong that BOD has beaten? Arroyo is currently ranked 787 in California on MaxPreps. BOD scored 1 goal on them in 160 minutes of play!

        3. Strength of Schedule (S.O.S.) per MaxPreps;
          BOD = 0.5 (18th in Div 3 S.O.S.)
          SRV = 8.5 (2nd in Div 1 S.O.S. and Top 7 Div 1 S.O.S. & top 9 of 11, are all EBAL teams)

          Mt.Eden S.O.S. = 1.9
          Arroyo S.O.S. = 3.3
          Cal S.O.S. = 6.7
          Liv S.O.S. = 7.2

          1. EBAL is overrated. If you look at the fact that Berkeley beat SRV and tied BOD, doesn’t that make BOD good enough to challenge EBAL “powerhouses.” Besides, we can’t forget last year Berkeley beat 4 EBAL teams to win NCS, so how do we actually know EBAL is so much better then WACC and others.

            1. We beat Berkeley. And we’re in 3rd place. BOD tied them twice. So are we better than BOD. I like the stat on here that you only scored one goal on Arroyo in 2 games. They almost blanked you!

              1. AV Fanatic:
                BOD beat Castro Valley, a team you tied and allowed to score. 2-0 win for BOD. So there is that. We can go in circles, but if you like facts and stats here are some:

                BOD has not lost since Dec. 9th.
                BOD has not allowed a goal in the run of play since Dec. 9th.
                Last goal scored was a PK on Jan. 10 against Berkeley.
                BOD has only allowed 5 goals all season.
                BOD has played against the 5th, 6th, 7th, 9th, 11th, and 14th best offenses (Goals scored).
                BOD is a top 10 offense (Goals scored).
                BOD is the #1 defense in terms of goals allowed.

            2. Berkeley and BOD are quality teams and can definitely compete with EBAL ‘powerhouses’. Unfortunately those are the ONLY two quality teams in the WACC so far. Saying that the WACC overall is on the same level as EBAL is ridiculous. Please don’t ‘lob’ in all these SOS, goals scored, etc stats to try and justify the WACC. I’m sure they will improve as a league down the road as will many other teams in less competitive leagues. The parody of NCS soccer is growing. For some reason people think that EBAL is overrated and is given ‘Special’ treatment. EBAL’s success is earned by the players and coaches.

        4. as of today:
          BOD combined opponents records = 144-158-50 (14 games under 500)
          SRV combined opponents records = 182-110-107 (72 games over 500)

          1. As stated previously, I am not stating that BOD should be ranked above SRV. I am saying that movement is skewed differently for certain teams, sometimes based on inflated perceptions.
            If certain leagues are far better than every other league, let’s take a look at the overall win percentages of all leagues to see how much of a difference there is:
            BVAL: 0.49
            DAL: 0.53
            Foothill Division: 0.51
            Valley Division: 0.55
            EBAL: 0.55
            Mountain Division: 0.58
            Valley Division: 0.53
            MCAL: 0.48
            MVAL: 0.4
            NBL: 0.51
            SCL: 0.43
            TCAL: 0.43
            Rock Division: 0.5
            Stone Division: 0.35
            WACC: 0.45
            Foothill Division: 0.55
            Shoreline Division: 0.34

            EBAL has the highest, but things are closer than the comments would say. Also, if you look at individual divisions things are still close. EBAL Mountain is tops with 0.58, but WAAC-Foothill, 0.55, and DAL- Valley, 0.55, are still up there.

            So overall, things are closer among all leagues. Good leagues compare to other good leagues. Decent leagues compare to other decent leagues. There are no poor leagues, and all leagues have very capable teams.

            1. Good stats to look at– did you calculate them yourself? Even better would be to exclude all league games, as win % is always .50 for all league games, with a multiplier to account for number of non-league games played. 50 non-league games played are more significant than 20 non-league games played. Also, if you want to look at strength of playoff teams only, exclude the teams who will be ineligible for playoffs– look only at non-league record WP of teams that will be playoff eligible.

            2. I know you can look at stats many different ways. I do think that EBAL parity with other leagues is closer than it has been in past years, but “closer” is also relative.

              For example, if you look at all EBAL teams, they averaged just 2 losses each against non-EBAL opponents this season.

              For easy math that means 2 losses each in approx 10 non-league games, so that means EBAL teams are batting .800 when playing against teams from other leagues.

              To make this local comparison worse, some EBAL teams losses were against teams from outside NCS entirely.

              Tough league no matter you slice the data.

      2. Please give the #1 ranking to BOD starting right now. We need them to lose both of their games this week. #LivingTheJinx

          1. RankledByRankings:
            Who asked for the #1 ranking? Just some observations about how things shift differently for different teams. SRV is an example of that. Not saying BOD is above them.

            MaxPreps and Matt’s rankings are definitely different entities, but if you are going to use MaxPreps as a reference, please paint the whole picture.

            Despite low SOS, BOD is still ranked 6th among ALL NCS divisions, and number 1 in D3. Top 5 in all NCS for reference: Marin Academy, DLS, Montgomery, Redwood, and SRV.

            Also, BOD beat Acalanes (MaxPreps #19), Concord (MP#25), and San Lorenzo (MP#26). The same Acalanes that tied Livermore (MP#40) and beat Cal(MP #27). It may have been the first game of their seasons, but that was after the NPL season and Thanksgiving Showcases (Surf, Nomads, etc.), so please no “Not full roster” statements.

            1. It seems Maxpreps has an heavy bias towards Marin teams. Redwood and Montgomery for example, never played a team from this side, yet they are ranked real high compared to everybody else, 4 or 5 ranking points above their closest opponents. Is Maxpreps algorithm historical? Perhaps it does not deal well with pre-merging NCS data?

  19. MCAL Playoffs first round (3v6 & 4v5)

    (4) Drake 0 (5) Branson 2

    (6) San Rafael forfeited to (3) Terra Linda …. wtf! How does that happen? Can’t wait to hear somebody’s explanation for that one. (Two years ago, SR was playoff eligible in a bracket with less than 16 teams but somebody didn’t submit the application to NCS. Anyone noticing a pattern?)

    1. Ignore above re San Rafael– jumped to a conclusion because game not played today and shows as “cancelled” with Terra Linda scheduled for a semi on Weds. But in fact, TL-SR was moved up to Saturday, with TL winning 3-0 (played at San Marin). Neither team has a home field, so probably a field issue.

  20. I watched DLS at Richmond on Saturday. The game was entertaining, quite exciting and certainly intense. The opposition of styles is always interesting. It really could have gone either way: both teams had chances. One interesting thing about this game was that this was Senior night at Richmond. In a beautiful gesture, the two teams agreed to play a few minutes before the actual start of the game to let a Richmond senior, Luis Serrano, play. He tore his meniscus right before the season and will not be able to play, besides these few minutes, in his senior year of high school. Kudos to DLS for agreeing to do this and to Richmond for thinking about doing it. Luis was the focus of the passes of his teammates, and DLS let him he score a goal before he left the field. An unforgettable night for him. Now, yes, I could talk about how Richmond was more technical and creative, while DLS was DLS, disciplined, hard-working and remarkably organized, but I think talking about what these two teams did before the official kick-off was more interesting.

    1. Very nice Z! Nice to see HS soccer accommodating that injured player. Makes me want to pull for both those teams going forward.

    2. Great Post!

      I was also there and it was a special 2 minutes for Luis. When he left the field and cried it brought tears to my eyes. What the game means to many of these boys is very special. It’s a true brotherhood among them and a very special time in their lives. A ton of credit to both coaches who run their soccer programs with integrity and respect year in and year out.

      Best of Luck to all the boys the last week of the season and upcoming playoffs.

    3. Thanks for sharing the story about this special moment for Luis. A nice tribute by both teams to a great leader on the RHS team. Wish I would have been there to see it.

    1. Gotta have a .500 record in one of three categories: overall; league; or, games against opponents in same NCS playoff division (which includes HS teams outside of NCS that have # of students within that division’s enrollment range). IMO, NCS should change this rule– the purpose behind the rule no longer exists. There should be 16 teams in each bracket– for example, new rule could let teams with at least a .333 WP apply for playoffs if there are “leftover” spots after the teams with a >.500 WP get their seedings.

      1. My understanding is that the plan for next season is to go to 8 team brackets in 5 divisions plus an open division. That would mean 48 slots compared to a maximum of 64 this year.

        1. Ridiculous idea, IMO. Imagine being the 9th best team in D1 or D2 with no dance. And reduces NCS gate receipts– a major revenue stream to pay NCS staff salaries, etc.

    1. The curse of the blog strikes again! ;-0

      Great win for Lick. I hope they get eligible– they are peaking at right time.

  21. Anyone have an update on the two Amador Valley players that got red cards last game? Are they out one or two games? Thanks

    1. Predict a #13-15 seed for Dublin. They really don’t have many quality D1 wins. DV & Foothill really are the only ones of note. Matt has 13 locks for D1. DV is the only one Dublin has beaten, and head-to-head is big with the committee. Dublin really needs a couple of strong finishes with Granada & Dougherty this week if they want to move higher in the bracket. But I’m not convinced even those would help. They are gonna have to be Road Warriors in the playoffs.

  22. 10 Missing items in NCS Soccer this year:
    1. Why only 13 games for Marin Academy? Makes it tough to rank them I bet. They need more results. Every other team seems to be in the 20+ games played.
    2. Stats for many teams. Some have winning records and scored a ton of goals. But no mention of any of their players in the league leaders. Mystery goals?
    3. DLS bloggers & posts. Where’d they go?
    4. RAIN! Love it for games sake!
    5. Clear cut run away teams from the rest of the pack. Seems like the most even pool of teams in ages.
    6. Whiners. Not too many complaining about games, refs, coaches, etc. Maybe we are making progress and maturing?
    7. Breakdowns. Used to be we could get on here and have a bunch of “observations” from matches. Bring them back. Speak up yo!
    8. Player highlights. Who’s playing well? Who’s defending? Who’s the top keeper? Who’s the one to watch in midfield?
    9. MVAL comments. Crickets?
    10. Coaches. We have never really heard from coaches on here. Been several this year though. Would be nice to hear from more.
    ~Just some thoughts from a late sub~

    1. On MA, they are leagueless, i.e., independent. I believe they have requested to play some teams in higher divisions who have turned them down. No wonder those teams turned them down– nothing to gain really. They are risking a loss to a Division IV team and a win means little in the seeding probably, given that the playoffs committee likely won’t give much credit toward seeding for beating a lower division team, even if that team shows outstanding quality from its other results. We can give a Division 1, 2 or 3 team a lot of credit for beating MA, and so can Matt, but it’s the playoff committee that matters.

      1. With league realignment next year, Justin Siena is dropping out of the MCAL. So it would be a natural change for MA to join the MCAL, at least in boys soccer. But it does not look like that’s going to happen, for whatever reason.

    2. Great Post!
      I mentioned earlier in the season about how Marin Academy wasn’t playing enough games to earn a high ranking and their SOS is suspect. 13 games played compared to 20+ games for everyone else. I’m sorry but a 7 game differential is way TOO MUCH to give them the #1 Ranking.

    3. I agree with more match breakdowns needed. If you watch games and know about the blog, might as well post! Help us keep informed

    4. Great post @latesub. It’s true, the level of activity on the blog has been disappointing this year. As far as the mystery goals go, I think some teams probably don’t want to reveal all their weapons. I know for a fact there are some teams with players that would be in the top scorers If they reported them

      1. It can also be that reporting the top scorers may or may not be good for egos and team chemistry, if the players hang out on the blog.

  23. Dublin with the biggest drop in rankings history?!? Sad a team with great players flopped so hard once they hit league… Could this have anything to do with them losing their coaching staff before the season?

    1. Coaching matters, period. But Dublin enjoyed basking in the sun of the preseason. Then the EBAL came and “the night was dark and full of terrors!”
      They are still new to the EBAL in general. Maybe still getting their “sea legs”. But I did predict before Christmas, mid December, that they would no longer be undefeated or ranked #1 by new years. Also guessing “great players” may be a stretch with the EBAL results they’ve posted? All the EBAL have quality players. The definition has to adjust.

  24. Seriously Matt. The time and attention you put into this is amazing and we appreciate it SO much. I love that we have a venue to follow all of NCS, rather than just our own leagues. Keep up the GREAT work!

        1. I do have them among the DIV group in the playoff breakdown. I have them No. 1 in the NCS rankings, which is regardless of division.

          1. Not that it makes a difference but in your Rankings summary you justified Marin Academy’s #1 ranking due to being undefeated (only played 13 games with a weak schedule) and that DLS had 2 draws last week when they actually had 1 win (Monte Vista-Tuesday night)and 2 draws (SRV/Richmond). Can’t quite see how you drop them when they win a game and then draw against the #4 SRV and #6 Richmond @ Richmond. Not a big deal but questionable.

            All good!!

            1. To be honest, I have a hard time dropping teams out of the top spot. But, if the No. 10 ranked team drew two matches, with the #14 and #16 teams, they’d probably move down a spot as well. Especially when the team right behind them loses. I understand the argument against MA, which is why I have kept them from No. 1, but at some point you just have to reward a team for being unbeaten. With that said, things have changed substantially. See above.

              1. Funny how that works 🙂

                Great job this season with all your hard work. Looking forward to playoff predictions next week.

                Big night tonight for EBAL. Can DLS put a stranglehold on the league championship?

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