Girls Soccer: Playoff Projections, Rankings

Girls Soccer: Playoff Projections, Rankings

Sorry to announce this on a day that is so exciting for everyone, but I do need to let the readers know, while I’ve got your attention, that this is likely the end of my time with the blog.

It has become too hard with my new schedule, with married life and new coaching responsibilities. I am not closing the door completely, in case I move out of San Francisco and into the East Bay or North Bay, but there is a good chance that I will walk away. It’s become too hard to stay in tune and to update the blog.

I regret that I only started doing a girls side of this blog two years ago, because it has been great, and covering soccer for the last 10 years has been something that I truly have loved. I will miss it.

With that said, for probably the last time, here are my playoff projections.

These are my projections, based on what I think the committee will do. Please remember that.

Division I

1. Monte Vista
2. Carondelet
3. Foothill
4. California
5. Amador Valley
6. San Ramon Valley
7. Dublin
8. Heritage
9. Clayton Valley
10. Liberty
11. Freedom
12. Castro Valley
13. Logan
14. College Park
15. Berkeley
16. Irvington

I think because of how all the teams in the EBAL (not named Monte Vista) beat up on each other, they are simply going order them by league finish. I thinnk Dublin will be ahead of all other non-EBAL schools. I think Clayton drops down to No. 9 after not winning their league.

Division II

1. Montgomery
2. Tamalpais
3. Livermore
4. Las Lomas
5. Redwood
6. Northgate
7. Newark Memorial
8. Maria Carrillo
9. Bishop O’Dowd
10. Ukiah
11. Casa Grande
12. Hayward
13. Alameda
14. Arroyo
15. Mission San Jose
16. Richmond

The top six was hard for me. I could see arguments for a multitude of other combinations.

Division III

1. Analy
2. Drake
3. Kennedy-Fremont
4. Sonoma Valley
5. Campolindo
6. Miramonte
7. Alhambra
8. El Cerrito
9. Pinole Valley
10. Terra Linda
11. Albany
12. Petaluma
13. Ygnacio Valley
14. San Rafael
15. Encinal
16. De Anza

This was the hardest division for me to call. I am only confident about who I have at No. 1.

Division IV

1. Branson
2. Piedmont
3. Marin Academy
4. Cardinal Newman
5. Sonoma Academy
6. Urban
7. Moreau Catholic
8. St. Mary’s
9. Head-Royce
10. Marin Catholic
11. El Molino
12. Berean Christian
13. Swett

I leave myself open to criticism from Berean Christian, but when I do this, I try to figure out what the committee will do. What they value most is head-to-head and the loss to El Molino will prove costly for Berean. I don’t envy Sonoma Academy in this scenario.


The rankings become largely irrelevant now that the seeding is being released tomorrow.

1. Monte Vista 19-0-1
2. Branson 19-0-2
3. Tamalpais 18-1-3
4. Foothill 10-1-9
5. Amador Valley 12-4-4
6. Carondelet 14-5-4
7. California 11-4-5
8. Montgomery 17-1-1
9. San Ramon Valley 7-3-8
10. Dublin 10-5-5
11. Clayton Valley 15-0-8
12. Livermore 10-6-4
13. Las Lomas 12-4-1
14. Heritage 12-5-0
15. Maria Carrillo 14-2-1
16. Liberty 13-5-0
17. Northgate 12-3-2
18. Redwood 14-5-0
19. Piedmont 13-3-2
20. Logan 11-3-3
21. Newark 15-2-2
22. Kennedy-Fremont 13-4-2
23. Freedom 9-5-4
24. Analy 15-2-3
25. College Park 10-7-3


Marin Academy (10-6-1, 7-2-1) 22
Urban (8-6-3, 6-2-2) 20
Head-Royce (7-5-3, 5-2-3) 18
University (6-7-4, 3-4-3) 12
Lick-Wilmerding (2-7-5, 2-4-4) 10
St. Joseph-Notre Dame (1-10-1, 0-9-1) 1

Heritage (12-5-0, 8-2-0) 24
Liberty (13-5-0, 8-2-0) 24
Freedom (9-5-4, 7-2-1) 22
Deer Valley (8-10-1, 4-5-1) 13
Antioch (2-15-3, 1-9-0) 3
Pittsburg (7-17-0, 1-9-0) 3

Foothill Division
Las Lomas (12-4-1, 9-0-1) 28
College Park (10-7-3, 6-4-0) 18
Campolindo (9-7-1, 5-4-1) 16
Miramonte (8-12-1, 5-5-0) 15
Alhambra (8-9-2, 2-6-2) 8
Acalanes (3-14-2, 0-8-2) 2
Valley Division
Northgate (12-3-2, 8-0-2) 26
Clayton Valley (15-0-8, 7-0-3) 24
Berean Christian (8-6-4, 3-3-4) 13
Ygnacio Valley (8-6-1, 4-5-1) 13
Concord (5-11-4, 2-6-2) 8
Mt. Diablo (9-14-1, 0-10-0) 0

Mountain Division
Monte Vista (19-0-1, 12-0-1) 37
Carondelet (14-5-4, 6-4-3) 21
California (11-4-5, 5-4-4) 19
San Ramon Valley (7-3-8, 4-3-6) 18
Dougherty Valley (3-14-1, 0-13-0) 0
Valley Division
Foothill (10-1-9, 4-1-8) 20
Amador Valley (12-4-4, 5-4-4) 19
Livermore (10-6-4, 5-5-3) 18
Dublin (10-5-5, 3-5-5) 14
Granada (4-11-2, 3-8-2) 11

Branson (19-0-2, 13-0-1) 40
Tamalpais (18-1-3, 12-0-2) 38
Redwood (14-5-0, 11-3-0) 33
Drake (11-6-4, 5-5-4) 19
Marin Catholic (8-8-1, 6-7-1) 19
Terra Linda (10-9-0, 6-8-0) 18
Novato (5-8-4, 3-8-3) 12
San Rafael (8-10-4, 3-8-3) 12
San Marin (4-13-5, 1-8-5) 8
Justin-Siena (0-14-4, 0-12-2) 2

Logan (11-3-3, 11-0-3) 36
Newark Memorial (15-2-2, 11-1-2) 35
Kennedy (13-4-2, 9-3-2) 29
Moreau Catholic (9-3-4, 7-3-4) 25
Irvington (10-8-1, 6-7-1) 19
American (3-15-1, 2-12-0) 6
Mission San Jose (4-15-1, 2-12-0) 6
Washington (1-18-0, 1-13-0) 3

Montgomery (17-1-1, 13-0-1) 40
Maria Carrillo (14-2-1, 12-1-1) 37
Cardinal Newman (12-9-0, 7-7-0) 21
Casa Grande (9-9-0, 7-7-0) 21
Ukiah (11-8-3, 7-7-0) 21
Santa Rosa (9-10-0, 5-9-0) 15
Windsor (7-11-2, 4-10-0) 12
Rancho Cotate (0-20-0, 0-14-0) 0

Analy (15-2-3, 12-1-1) 37
Sonoma Academy (14-4-2, 12-2-0) 36
Petaluma (15-4-2, 10-2-2) 32
Sonoma Valley (9-8-1, 8-5-1) 25
El Molino (7-12-0, 5-9-0) 15
Piner (5-12-1, 3-9-1) 10
Elsie Allen (4-17-0, 2-12-0) 6
Healdsburg (0-17-0, 0-14-0) 0

Rock Division
Pinole Valley (14-4-1, 9-0-1) 28
El Cerrito (10-4-4, 8-1-1) 25
Albany (10-7-1, 6-4-0) 18
St. Mary’s (8-7-0, 4-6-0) 12
Salesian (1-9-1, 1-8-1) 4
St. Patrick-St. Vincent (3-11-1, 0-9-1) 1
Stone Division
De Anza (11-6-0, 8-0-0) 24
Richmond (7-14-0, 6-2-0) 18
Hercules (3-13-2, 3-4-1) 10
Swett (4-10-2, 2-5-1) 4
Kennedy (1-15-0, 0-8-0) 0

Foothill League
Piedmont (13-3-2, 7-1-2) 23
Castro Valley (10-4-5, 5-2-3) 18
Bishop O’Dowd (6-9-2, 5-3-2) 17
Berkeley (5-7-9, 3-1-6) 15
Arroyo (7-11-1, 2-7-1) 7
Mt. Eden (4-13-1, 1-9-0) 3
Shoreline League
Hayward (7-4-3, 7-0-3) 24
Alameda (7-9-4, 6-2-2) 20
San Leandro (11-4-8, 4-1-5) 17
Encinal (5-5-5, 3-3-4) 13
Tennyson (6-14-3, 2-6-2) 8
San Lorenzo (0-16-2, 0-10-0) 0

Redwood Christian (0-10-1)


Agostino, Alhambra 24
Tshimbalanga, Carondelet 21
Brien, Piedmont 21
Gonzalez, M. Carrillo 20
Day, Branson 19
Brinkman, Freedom 19
Romero, Livermore 19
Jones, Branson 18
Fuentes, Newark 18
Burton, EC 17
N. Trucco, Cal 16
Safarians, CP 16
Murillo, Logan 16
Edelman, MV 16
Hazelwood, Pinole 16
Halford, RW 16
Prosnitz, Branson 15
Bradley, LL 15
Bray, Ukiah 15

Jones, Branson 17
Prosnitz, Branson 16
Halford, RW 16
M. Dillon, Branson 15
Ospeck, Carondelet 14
Fuentes, Newark 14
A. Dillon, Branson 13
Burton, EC 13
Van Pelt, EC 13
Dejjkic, MV 13
Day, Branson 11

74 thoughts on “Girls Soccer: Playoff Projections, Rankings

  1. Likley CIF selections

    1. Monte vista
    2. Davis
    3. Franklin
    3. Mountain View
    4. Arch Bishop Mitty
    5. St. Ignatius
    6. Foothill
    **7. Caronolet
    **8. Palo Alto

    If Cal beats MV then CAL goes to CIF, MV is the wildcard and the loser of the Foothill/C-let game is OUT.

  2. Livermore vs. Monty is the championship game.

    If Livermore were in any league other than the toughest league in America they would be the #2 seed. They already beat #2 Maria Carillo, 2-0 and are battle tested. Monty will begin for a game.

    Livermore has probably one of the top 5 strikers in the EBAL and she will be a tough match up for sure.

    Monty has a WNT player but I am sure Coach Harper will match his older WNT pool player on her. Should be a tight one.

  3. Most curious match: Montgomery and Livermore.

    I must say that after the EBAL Division I semi’s, I am most curious about the Livermore versus Montgomery tilt. We will get to see how a decent EBAL team does against the “cream” of another league and a more highly ranked team at that. Go Livermore! Go EBAL!

    1. It should be great match and the winner should be the favorite to win the final IMO. Also, If the result is close, the loser should apply for a spot in the NorCal tournament because there are two wildcard spots available for teams that lose in the semifinals (however, the competition for a wildcard spot will be brutal because their are only two spots total for all 4 divisions and some great semifinal losers in NCS, CCS and SSJS, so those wildcards could go to CCS or SSJS teams or to Div 1, 3 or 4 NCS teams).

      1. Better phrasing: …some great semifinal teams who will not make it to the Final

        I may attend and, if so, will post some updates.

      1. That is weird, prior MV had no losses, now that is their only loss, but was originally recorded as a 6-0 win.

        Late season intrigue, what would over-turn a game result now? Ineligible player?

  4. CAL is more than capbable of beating MV. You only need to tie in regulation and go to PK’s where CAL will have the advantage at goalie.

    1. It is the tie in regulation that worries me. :- )

      Unfortunately, Cal High has looked suspect on set pieces since the beginning of the season–at the time, I think I wrote that every set piece was “an adventure”– and last night proved no different. It will be tough to sit back and absorb pressure without giving fouls and surrendering set pieces. This is especially true for a Cal High team that can be fairly physical.

      I think it likely that Cal High need to score at least one goal to even force it to overtime.

  5. Meeting at the Division I Championship?

    It is winding down and with Matt’s departure, we may not be communicating in the future. It has been fun exchanging thoughts and barbs with many of you.

    Win, lose or draw, I am likely to go to the Division I Championship game, which is what I did last year even though my oldest daughter’s Cal High squad was not in the Championship game.

    If any of you go this year, it might be nice to meet up at the field before the match? I know I would like to put faces to some of the names.

    As the game approaches, if you are going and want to say hello please post it on the forum and we will arrange a time and place to meet, i.e., twenty minutes before kick-off at the flag pole, etc…

  6. Looks like an ebal final four. Seeds 1,2,3,4.

    I’ll take Foothill over C-let because, Foothill’s defense is stout and C- let has to travel on a school day.

    MV over CAL is a very close game.

    1. Dear Boilermaker, congratulations on your daughter’s soccer commitment. My oldest daughter just completed her first season of college soccer and had a blast. That being said? My wife and I tracked about ten to fifteen of my daughter’s teammates and opponents. The vast majority of those freshman did not get huge minutes. Some transferred. For what it is worth, my advice to all freshmen is: Don’t get caught-up in playing time. It will come. Just enjoy the whole college experience, class, football, sororities, being away from home, new friends, etc…. That way, it is a lot harder to go wrong.

    2. Yep, the seeding went “according to Hoyle.”

      I hope ebal is right about Cal High keeping it close. Cal High, it seemed to many of us, did play a “shorter bench” and went with many of those players longer.

    1. Thanks for the thought. Love the game and competition. Moving on to D1 soccer next year with my daughter. Will stay engaged (from a distance).

    1. I want to hate Foothill and their 8 ties, because, in my opinion, Cal High beat the living “shite” out of them when they met…in a tie. :- ) But, I can’t. They remind me of too many teams on which I played. Defensively resilient and tough. As we used to say, “They were better than we were, except where it counted…on the scoreboard.”

      If Cal High does not beat MV and if Foothill gets past Carondolet? I think those of us that love the underdog gotta root for Foothill.

      1. CV is physical and has a good defense. Foothill dominated them for the majority of the game. Foothill missed a PK early and a couple of headers that hit the post. Could have easily been 3-0. CV resorted to boom ball for most of the game, hoping for a bad touch… never happened.

        Dublin center backs, who have been susceptible to boom ball all season, had bad touches. End result is Dublin lost.

    1. I asked Matt to delete a portion of my post from last night, but he eliminated the entire post. In short, Cal High v. SRV was a 2-1 Cal High win in the second overtime.

      To me, the game seemed to go in runs. At one point, it would be SRV, especially when they first high pressed. Then, it would be Cal High’s time to have the ball. Then, SRV would have the ball. Well, you get it.

      Cal’s scored the only goal of the first half. SRV could not clear the ball out of a crowded box, where it pinged around and a Cal player finally finished it. SRV scored off a beautiful header. I was not watching the scorer on Cal High’s winning goal. I am not sure what took place.

      As these things are wont to do, the game got chippy, certainly by the end.

  7. Liberty will attempt to take down MV. Would not be surprised if the coach just sat back on defense all game and take it into penalties!!!!

    1. Yeah, this may be the only chance of keeping it close. After watching the Liberty vs. Heritage match, both teams were pretty evenly matched and neither one has the horses to run to-to-toe with MV. It would literally take the worst game ever for MV and the perfect error free game from Liberty to result in a Liberty upset.

  8. Division I
    MV 6-0 Irvington
    Heritage 0-1 Liberty
    Cal 2-0 Castro Valley
    SRV 2-1 CP
    FH 4-0 Logan
    Dublin 0-3 Clayton
    Carondelet 4-1 Berkeley
    AV 4-1 Freedom
    Division II
    Monty 10-0 Richmond
    Newark 1-0 BOD
    LL 2-0 Arroyo
    Livermore 9-2 MSJ
    Maria Carrillo 7-0 Alameda
    Northgate 1-0 Ukiah
    Tam 6-0 Hayward
    Redwood 3-1 Casa
    Division III
    Analy 6-0 Encinal
    EC 3-2 Pinole
    Drake 3-0 Sonoma Valley
    TL 1-2 YV
    Campo 3-0 San Rafael
    Miramonte 1-2 Alhambra
    JFK-F 5-0 Albany
    Petaluma 7-2 DA
    Division IV
    Berean 2-0 Moreau
    Marin Catholic 2-0 El Mo
    Urban 3-1 St. Mary
    Sonoma Ac. 3-2 HR

  9. 3-0 Clayton over Dublin in a horribly reffed game. Fouls all over the field, yellow cards, a red card, and lots of no calls. The shame is the Clayton girl was yellowed carded twice on petty fouls when there were plenty of arm locking take downs not being called. Parents were screaming from both stands at the refs and the game was ended before the clock expired.

    1. The game was a lot closer than the score. Clayton scored on two botched plays by the same Dublin center back. One goal was scored on a legit corner. Dublin has 3 goals overturned for questionable offside calls and had 2-3 balls hit the post. Props to Clayton for capitalizing.

    1. To me an upset would be a win by a 12 or lower seed. If 11, 10 or 9 win Inwoukd not consider that an upset.

      Logan vs. Foothill——traveling at 3pm, playing at 5 with no dinner in your belly should not be underestimated. Logan lost to Amador 3-2 early in the season and Foothill has tied 8 games. Logan is definitely better than a 15 seed. All of these factors point to a low scoring affair and possibly penalty kicks.

      Carondolet vs. Berkeley –
      I’ve said before that any game with Berkeley in the playoff is dangerous. They certainly were up to the task last year when they toppled Foothil. Carondolet seems to be limping into the playoffs with coaching questions and injuries. These factors could make them vulnerable to a very good defensive team like Berkeley. The only way Berkeley wins is if they take them to penalties.

      Cal and SRV should have no issues advancing.

      MV has no chance to lose.

    2. In round 2 a Hertiage vs. MV would be an interesting match.
      If they get there we can discuss.
      No team is unbeatable, especially when comprised of young teenagers.

      Giants beat the undefeated patriots in the Super Bowl.

      Jimmy V’s NC state beat the Houston 5-Slama-Jama college basketball team.

      Larry Johnson 33-0 UNLV hoop team beat by duke 79-77.

      The current warriors losing to May losing team!

      Joe Namath beat the colts

  10. Matt NCS Committee Max (Playoff Pred)
    1.. Monte Vista Monte Vista Monte Vista
    2. Carondelet Foothill Carondelet
    3. Foothill Carondelet California
    4. California California Foothill
    5. Amador San Ramon Amador
    6. San Ramon Amador San Ramon
    7. Dublin Dublin Clayton Valley Charter
    8. Heritage Heritage Dublin
    9. Clayton Valley Liberty Heritage
    10. Liberty Clayton Valley Charter Liberty
    11. Freedom Freedom James Logan
    12. Castro Valley College Park Freedom
    13. Logan Castro Valley College Park
    14. College Park Berkeley Castro Valley
    15. Berkeley James Logan Berkeley
    16. Irvington Irvington Irvington

  11. Division I Breakdown

    No. 1 Monte Vista v. No. 16 Irvington
    Everybody plays with smiles in route to a 8-0 win for MV.

    No. 8 Heritage v. No. 9 Liberty
    They split doing the season. I expect Heritage to just squeak by at home.

    No. 4 California v. No. 13 Castro Valley
    CAL runs over CV. just too much speed and skill.

    No. 5 San Ramon Valley v. No. 12 College Park
    easy win for SRV.

    No. 2 Foothill v. No. 15 James Logan
    Foothill gets a raw deal as the #2 traveling to Logan. The game will be close in the first half but should pull away in the second to victory.

    No. 7 Dublin v. No. 10 Clayton Valley
    Will be a close affair but I expect Dublin to win at home.

    No. 3 Carondelet v. No. 14 Berkeley
    The WNT Berkeley goal has the capability to send this one to penalties were it will be anyone’s game. I do expect C-let to advance however.

    No. 6 Amador Valley v. No. 11 Freedom
    Amador will roll over Freedom.

  12. Yes Matt – from the beginning I thought your managing this was a paid position! So thank you for all your time and efforts. Handling both girls and boys is too much for any mortal 🙂

  13. Division I
    No. 1 Monte Vista v. No. 16 Irvington
    No. 8 Heritage v. No. 9 Liberty

    No. 4 California v. No. 13 Castro Valley
    No. 5 San Ramon Valley v. No. 12 College Park

    No. 2 Foothill v. No. 15 James Logan
    No. 7 Dublin v. No. 10 Clayton Valley

    No. 3 Carondelet v. No. 14 Berkeley
    No. 6 Amador Valley v. No. 11 Freedom

  14. Division II
    No. 1 Montgomery v. No. 16 Richmond
    No. 8 Newark Memorial v. No. 9 Bishop O’Dowd

    No. 4 Las Lomas v. No. 13 Arroyo
    No. 5 Livermore v. No. 12 Mission San Jose

    No. 2 Maria Carrillo v. No. 15 Alameda
    No. 7 Northgate v. No. 10 Ukiah

    No. 3 Tamalpais v. No. 14 Hayward
    No. 6 Redwood v. No. 11 Casa Grande

  15. Division III
    No. 1 Analy v. No. 16 Encinal
    No. 8 El Cerrito v. No. 9 Pinole Valley

    No. 4 Drake v. No. 13 Sonoma Valley
    No. 5 Terra Linda v. No. 12 Ygnacio Valley

    No. 2 Campolindo v. No. 15 San Rafael
    No. 7 Miramonte v. No. 10 Alhambra

    No. 3 Kennedy-Fremont v. No. 14 Albany
    No. 6 Petaluma v. No. 11 De Anza

  16. Division IV
    No. 1 Branson v. Bye
    No. 8 Berean Christian v. No. 9 Moreau Catholic

    No. 4 Cardinal Newman v. Bye
    No. 5 Marin Catholic v. No. 12 El Molino

    No. 2 Piedmont v. Bye
    No. 7 Urban v. No. 10 St. Mary’s

    No. 3 Marin Academy v. Bye
    No. 6 Sonoma Academy v. No. 11 Head-Royce

  17. brackets are up for D2 and below.

    Livermore gets the #5 and meets Mission San Jose which should be a 8-0 affair. #1 Montgomery is on the same side and that game should be really good.

      1. For D2

        1. Montgomery
        2. Maria Carillo
        3. Tam
        4. Las Lomas

        IMO Montgomery got a bad draw with Livermore, (defending champs) in their bracket.

  18. Awesome job matt! We have appreciated your blog, insight and hard work. It too bad you aren’t compensated for your efforts to make it worth your time!

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